South Korea's Fertility Rate Reaches Another World Record Low

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Dramatic decline: South Korea's total fertility rate plummeted to a historic low of 0.72 per woman in 2023, with newborns tallying at 230,000. Projections from Statistics Korea anticipate a further decline into the 0.6 range for this year's annual total fertility rate.

• From last year: The rate has fallen from 2020's 0.78, marking a consistent downward trend.

• Quarterly figures: For the first time, the quarterly fertility rate dropped into the 0.6 range, with the last quarter of 2023 recording 0.65, a decrease from the fourth quarter of 2022's 0.70.

• Historic lows: Birth numbers also reached a new low, contrasting sharply with the previous year's 210,800.

Long-term trends:

• Decades of decline: The fertility rate first fell to the one-child range in 1984, at 1.74 children per woman, steadily decreasing ever since. In 2018, it dropped below one child per woman, hitting 0.98, and reached 0.72 last year.

• Record-setting lows: This rate is the lowest since Statistics Korea began its records, making Korea the only OECD country with a fertility rate below one, significantly below the OECD average of 1.58.

Changing demographics:

• Aging mothers: The average age for first-time mothers is now 33, and 34.4 years for the second child, indicating a gradual increase. Women aged 35 and above now account for over 36% of all births.

• Nationwide issue: Every one of the 17 cities or provinces in Korea recorded fertility rates below one for the first time, with Sejong city dropping to a rate of 0.97.

Population impact:

• Natural decline: Korea's population saw a natural decrease of 122,800 last year, continuing a trend of decline that started in 2020.

• COVID-19 and marriage rates: The decline in marriages since the pandemic is a significant factor. Lim Young-il of Statistics Korea suggests this trend is likely to influence future rates, with predictions for the year potentially reaching a 0.68 fertility rate.

What's Next

Forecast: The ongoing trend of reduced marriage rates since the COVID-19 outbreak is expected to further impact fertility rates, with predictions aligning closely with preliminary estimates for the year.